By Dirk Van Dijk
February 12, 2010
Earnings Preview 2/12/10
Earnings season is winding down, but that does not mean it’s over. Next week will bring 336 earnings reports, including 46 members of the S&P 500. Among the more significant reports well be those from Retail heavyweights Wal-Mart (WMT) and J.C. Penney (JCP), Tech titans Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL) and Applied Materials (AMAT). Other important companies releasing results next week include Deere (DE – Analyst Report) and Kraft Foods (KFT).
It will be a busy week on the economic data front with reports on Housing, Industrial Production and Inflation coming out.
Monday
• Furniture and Carpet stores will run sales featuring stove pipe and tri-cornered hat themes (a.k.a Presidents Day)
Tuesday
• The Treasury Budget will finally be released. The report showing just how much red ink was spilled in Washington in January was supposed to come out this week, but was delayed due to the snow. Consensus expectations are for a deficit of $46.0 billion. In December it was $91.9 billion, but the data is extremely seasonal. The better comparison is with January a year ago when $63.5 billion worth or red ink was spilled. That’s right folks — the budget deficit is expected to be down significantly. If it is, expect the number to hardly be mentioned on CNBC, since that would not fit their general talking points
Wednesday
• The day will start off with a very important measure of the housing market: housing starts and building permits. In December, housing starts unexpectedly plunged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000, interrupting a gradual uptrend that started in the spring. Normally one might expect a snap-back, but the seasonal adjustment might not capture all of bad weather. Building permits held up much better in December at an annual rate of 653,000, and permits are generally the best leading indicator of starts. I would expect starts to do better than permits in January, reversing some of the December divergence. Traditionally, residential investment is one of the most important (if not THE most important engine lifting the economy out of recessions). This time around, the engine seems to be running on just one cylinder
• The second major report of the day is the one on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. In December, overall Industrial production rose by 0.6%, but that was mostly due to a huge surge in Utility output, which rose 5.9%. Utility output is as much a function of the weather as it is of economic activity. Manufacturing output actually fell 0.1%. Look for a small rebound in manufacturing output. In December, overall Capacity Utilization was 72.0% and has been on an uptrend since May. It was up from 71.5% in November, but as with Industrial Production the increase was mostly from the Utilities; Factory output only inched up by 0.1% to 68.6%. The Capacity Utilization report is one of the most underrated of economic reports, and while it is improved from last summer, it is still at historically very low levels. A stalling Industrial Production and a fall in Capacity Utilization would be very bad news
Thursday
• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. They fell 43,000 in the last week, to 440,000. That reversed three straight weekly increases, but prior to that they had been in a very steep downtrend. Look for the decline to continue, but not at the same rate. The four-week average was only down 1,000 last week to 469,500
• Continuing claims have also been in a steep downtrend of late. However, that is in part due to people simply exhausting their regular state benefits which run out after 26 weeks. If one factors in the extended claims paid by the Federal government as part of the Stimulus Program, claims soared last week. Looking at just the regular continuing claims numbers is a serious mistake — they only include a little over half of the unemployed now given the unprecedentedly high duration of unemployment figures. Last week regular continuing claims were 4.538 million, a drop of 79,000. Extended claims (paid from Federal ARRA funds) were 5.684 million, a decline of 171,500. Make sure to look at both sets of numbers!
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due out. In December it was up 0.2% on a headline basis, a sharp drop from the 1.8% increase in November. Excluding food and energy to get the core PPI, prices were unchanged in December after a 0.5% increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices were up 4.4% overall, but mostly that was due to the rebound in energy prices from a year ago. On a core basis, the PPI was up only 0.9% year over year. Look for a small increase on both a core and headline basis in January
• The index of leading indicators has really been on a tear of late, rising 1.1% in December on top of a 1.0% increase in November. Expect a further rise, but not at quite as hot a pace
Friday
• The Consumer Price Index is due out. In December it was up 0.1% on a headline basis, down from 0.4% in November. On a core basis, prices were down 0.1% in December after being unchanged in November. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 2.7% overall, and up 1.8% on a core basis. Look for the CPI to be close to unchanged, and possibly slightly negative on a core basis. Inflation is not a serious concern right now
Potential Positive Surprises
Historically, the best indicators of firms likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. The Zacks Rank is also a good indicator of potential surprises. While normally firms that report better-than-expected earnings rise in reaction, that has not been the case so far this quarter. Some of the companies that have these characteristics include:
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is expected to report EPS of $0.38, down from $1.71 per share a year ago. Last time out, CLF posted a positive surprise of 850% (OK, it was a very low base, so take that percentage with a grain of salt) and over the last month the mean estimate for its fourth quarter earnings is up 7.20%. CLF has a Zacks #1 Rank.
Reliance Steel (RS) is expected to report EPS before non-recurring items of $1.01, up from $0.90 a year ago. In the 3Q, Reliance posted a positive surprise of 26.7% and over the last month, the consensus estimate for its 4Q earnings is up an awesome 168.1%. RS is a Zacks #1 Rank stock.
NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to earn $0.15 per share this year, up from a loss of $0.25 a year ago. In the third quarter it posted a 1333.3% positive surprise. Over the last month the mean estimate for the 4Q is up 15.0%. NVDA holds a Zacks #2 Rank.
Potential Negative Surprises
Goodyear Tire (GT) is expected to post a loss of $0.06 a share, an improvement over the $1.18 a share loss a year ago. Last time GT reported 6.38% short of expectations. For this Zacks #5 Rank stock, analysts have actually increased the estimates for this quarter over the last month by 2.44%.
Energy Transfer Equity (ETE) is expected to earn $0.46 a share this quarter, down from $0.59 last year. It disappointed by 56.3% last time out, and analysts have cut the estimate for this quarter by 4.52% over the last month. The stock holds a Zacks #5 Rank.
Winn-Dixie (WINN) is expected to report a loss of $0.16, worse than the loss of $0.06 last year. Last quarter they reported 3.50% short of expectations. Over the past month, analysts have cut the estimate for this Zacks #5 Rank stock by 10.8%.
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